GEOMETR.IT eurasiareview.com 01.04.2016
Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISS), the new Moldovan government will strengthen its position.
“Everyone understands that Pavel Filip is not an independent figure. Now all the positions of power are held by the oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, who actually received the authorization for governance from American diplomacy. Given that he is a very strong politician, who controls the main institutions of the state and society, he will strengthen his position and the position of his regime and will possibly continue repressions against his opponents. According to my forecast, there will be no aggravation or change of power in the near future,” the analyst said.
From his point of view, the US State Department, Brussels and Romanian political forces have a different vision for the future development of the situation in Chisinau.
“When there were the discussions around the formation of a government headed by Vladimir Plahotniuc, most in the West opposed it because of the oligarch’s odious reputation. So he had to nominate ‘his man’ who is fully controlled by him. Of course, not everyone in Europe likes the fact that Americans force their ideas, promote compromised politicians, which ultimately will cast a shadow on the EU’s policy toward Moldova as part of the Eastern Partnership program,” the expert said.
This, in his opinion, was the reason for creation of the opposition which included not only the left pro-Russian protesters but also DA Platform supported by the European diplomacy.
“In case of Vladimir Plahotniuc hypothetical weakening, there may be attempts to promote an alternative pro-European force. Of course, external actors took an active part in Moldova events, and Russia is the least involved in there, no matter what our ill-wishers say,” Vasily Kashirin added.
In turn, Knut Fleckenstein, Vice-Chair of Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament, member of the Delegation to the EU-Moldova Parliamentary Association Committee, disagreed with the statement that the current government is still in power only with the support from the outside.
“As long as there is a majority in Parliament for a certain government coalition, the country has a legitimate government. The Members of Parliament have been elected,” the German politician explained.
It doesn’t matter what kind of people in Moldova’s government the EU or Russia would prefer to see – it is up to the Moldovans to decide, he said.
Moreover, he expressed the hope for progress on the fundamental reforms that Moldova’s people request from their political leaders no matter that the situation in Moldova is currently very fragile.
“Moldova’s new government must prove swiftly that it doesn’t only make empty promises but that it implements the necessary reforms. People in Moldova rightfully expect their economic and social situation to improve. They also expect their political leaders to fight corruption which undermines the country’s economy as well as the people’s prospects for a better life,” Knut Fleckenstein said.
According to the public official of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, political scientist Andrey Safonov, the authorities will try to transform the conflict into a daily routine hassle.
“In contrast, government opponents can only expect to win if they keep the unity of their heterogeneous alliance. […]The opposition must either achieve early elections, or it will be defeated. Now the situation got stuck. I do not feel that there will be a decisive change in Moldova soon,” the expert said.
Moreover, the EU Eastern Partnership program has crashed, he said.
“This was a blatant political and, perhaps, financial fraud associated with splitting the money under the guise of ‘Europeanization’ of several post-Soviet countries. The scary thing is that the association with the European Union and joining the trade zone with EU killed Moldova’s production. The only possible way to get out of crisis is the reorientation of former Soviet Union countries and its former allies to the Eurasian integration model,” the analyst said.
At the same time, he said, the United States and the EU support not so much the Moldova power against the opposition as Chisinau’s orientation to the West to prevent the country’s pivot to the East.
“I would not rule out Washington and Brussels’ attempts to replace the current Moldovan government, which is considered to be too maneuvering between Moscow and the West, to the frankly anti-Russian and pro-American one. In this case such power should abandon the constitutional neutrality of Moldova and enter the NATO alliance. The reason for such radicalism is simple – the US wants to surround Russia with hostile regimes in the countries of the former socialist community and the former Soviet Union. The United States has put a lot of effort to unleash turmoil in Ukraine. It is clear that they will do everything to ensure that Chisinau is not turned in the direction of Russia,” Andrey Safonov concluded.
Political crisis in Moldova gained momentum in September 2015 as a response to another corruption scandal connected with the disappearance from the Moldovan banks of 1 billion US dollars – the sum comparable to the annual budget of the country.